A report released during the week by Blockware Intelligence forecast revealed that bitcoin adoption (BTC) could occur more rapidly than the adoption of past disruptive technologies such as automobiles and electric power, with global adoption likely to hit 10% by 2030.
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Blockware Intelligence said it arrived at this forecast by examining historical adoption curves for nine past disruptive technologies including automobiles, electric power, smartphones, the internet and social media, along with the growth rate of Bitcoin adoption since 2009.
“All disruptive technologies follow a similar exponential S-curve pattern, but newer network-based technologies continue to be adopted much faster than the market expects.”
Using the average and weighted average of historical technology adoption curves, as well as the growth rate of Bitcoin adoption, the report was then able to arrive at its prediction.
It said that based on a metric called Cumulative Sum of Net Entities Growth and Bitcoin’s predicted “CAGR of 60% we forecast that global Bitcoin adoption will break past 10% in the year 2030.”
Blockware Intelligence is the research arm of Blockware Solutions, a Bitcoin mining and blockchain infrastructure company, so you might expect it to be bullish on adoption.
The authors of the Blockware report stressed that the model used to predict the rate of adoption was only conceptual at this stage, adding it is neither meant to be used as investment advice nor a short-term trading tool, and it would continue to be refined:
“The general trend is clear; there is a high probability that Bitcoin’s global adoption will grow significantly into the future and thus so will price.”
The report and model were reviewed by several crypto investors and analysts, including executives from Ark Invest, Arcane Assets, AMDAX Asset Management and M31 Capital.
Cryptocurrency adoption has been growing rapidly over the last few years. In 2021, global crypto ownership rates reached an average of 3.9%, with over 300 million crypto users worldwide, according to data from TripleA, a global cryptocurrency payment gateway.
Blockchain data platform Chainalysis last year revealed that global adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency surged 881% from July 2020 to June 2021. It found Vietnam to have the highest cryptocurrency adoption, leading 154 countries analyzed, followed by India and Pakistan.